What do you see in your crystal ball for the future of book publishing?

Better not tell you now. 

As a practicing witch, I’ve got more than my share of crystals and other divinatory tools laying around my house. But if there’s one thing I’ve learned during my tenure in publishing for the last 12 years, it’s that the future of this industry can’t be seen in a crystal ball. 

Its infamous cousin the Magic 8 Ball with its dependable twenty different answers, though… Well, that’s a different story. 

Cannot Predict Now. Concentrate And Ask Again.

Depending on the day, week, year, or time zone you’re in, anyone you talk to in the industry is going to have a different take on where the future of publishing lies as a whole, and what the next big thing is going to be. Break it down further to different genres and their sub-genres and niches, and you’ve got yourself a debate that’s been happening since the dawn of clay tablets with cuneiform 5,500 years ago. 

But for the sake of my argument here, I’ll stick to the last two centuries. 

It Is Certain. Without A Doubt. Yes.

Change is pretty much the only thing you can count on in publishing. In 2013, the “Big 6” became the “Big 5” with Random House and Penguin merging. And most recently, in 2020, Penguin Random House announced their plans to purchase Simon & Schuster, which would have turned the Big 5 into the “Big 4.” 

Buuuuut thanks to the US Department of Justice tossing in an unexpected plot twist, the future of the “Big 5” is anything but certain. How’d they do that? Oh, ya know, just by suing them to block the merger, stating if the biggest publisher in the world Penguin Random House (PRH) was to acquire Simon & Schuster (S&S), the fourth largest publisher in the US - “the proposed merger would eliminate this important competition, resulting in lower advances for authors and ultimately fewer books and less variety for consumers.” 

Very Doubtful. My Sources Say No. 

Less variety and fewer books, you say? Respectfully, I’m calling bullshit. 

Before the pandemic hit, self publishing was up 40% in 2018 alone according to a report published by Bowker in 2019. So when the larger publishers came to a screeching grinding halt with book releases thanks to the ‘Vid in 2020, they left quite the vacuum for readers out there, who were hungry for books while under lockdown. 

And suddenly, readers were discovering more self-published authors and their works. Not only that, they were finding that the stigma surrounding books that are self-published, or only available on Amazon are “less than,” “poorly edited,” etc. - is and has always been - inaccurate AF. 

Reply Hazy, Try Again. 

Think about it this way, with change as the only constant when it comes to publishing wouldn’t it be correct to say that if the industry is worried “about a merged company that publishes perhaps 33 percent of new books, then surely it’s correct to worry more about the fact that Amazon now sells 49 percent of them.”? 

Honestly, this self-published author isn’t so sure. Considering past experiences with the “Big” publishing houses, they’ve proven time and time again that their ability to adapt to any sort of shift in the industry, has been at the breakneck speed of a glacier. 

So do I think the merger of two of the “Big 5” companies is going to have a negative effect on self-published authors? See below. 

My Reply is No. Don’t Count On It. 

If anything, I think despite their less than agile and at times overly obvious “for the sake of it” moves to join this century with efforts toward inclusion of new genres and diversity in both books and the authors who pen them, the fact remains that we’re in an era where consumer consumption is at an all time high. And when all it takes is the click of a button to turn any plan - no matter how long in the making - into complete and utter chaos… Watching large corporations try to keep up with self-published authors' ability to turn on a dime when trends change, is somewhat akin to watching a bear attempt ballet.

For those of us who make our living creating fantasy worlds, it’s certainly an experience to watch as former formidable foes tremble at the thought of authors no longer being dependent upon them to release their works to the masses. 

Until next time…

Stay Wicked, 

Graceley Knox 

Author Bio: 

Graceley Knox is a USA Today bestselling author of over 35 novels featuring wicked paranormal and fantasy romances, and the founder of Paper Myths Media. Graceley has been in the publishing industry for over twelve years in some way or another, wearing pretty much every hat other than that of editor and cover designer. She’s also 100% addicted to coffee and snarky mugs, and is determined to one day have a library that would make Belle cry. As a self-professed book-obsessed word witch, Graceley is fascinated with witchcraft, mythology, lore, and, of course, fantasy worlds! When she’s not caught up in her current hyper-fixation (shout out to her fellow ADHD Warriors!) she’s either writing books or reading them… Or talking about them, or taking photos of them for her bookstagram. Graceley is also a Ravenclaw who’s been known to binge-watch tv-shows featuring strong female leads while cuddling with her fur-babies. 

You can connect with Graceley here: https://linktr.ee/authorgraceleyknox

If The Big 5 Becomes The Big 4, Who Wins?

 What do I see in my crystal ball for the future of publishing? Will the Big 5 become the Big 4 and how would that trickle down throughout the industry?

My crystal ball is hella cloudy on the topic of traditional publishing, mostly because I haven't been paying attention to the latest brouhaha and scuttlebutt. However, because I didn't want to half-ass a post, I did double-check to make sure we're still at 5 major publishing houses. Yep. The merger for Simon's Random Penguin was blocked by the US DOJ on antitrust grounds but, as of December, the parent company of Random Penguin, Bertelsmann, was fighting the decision in court. 

Why did the DOJ block it? Because it would give SRP "outsized influence over who and what is published, and how much authors are paid for their work."

Bertelsmann argues that the merger better positions the company to fight against Amazon's overbearing influence on the market, which would improve distribution and author earnings as a result.

Authors' groups are stridently opposed to the merger because they've seen what's happened as the Big 8 became the Big 5 and the demise/acquisitions of midsized publishers by the 500lb gorillas.

The case is due to be heard in August. 

What is likely to happen if Bertelsmann wins? What always happens with mergers: departments will be consolidated, budgets slashed, staff laid off, and new/renewing contracts adjusted for terms that best suit the company. Never, in the history of capitalism, has a merger resulted in higher pay for non-executive staff and contracted talents. Any gains for contracted talents (authors, cover artists, editors, etc.) have come as a result of labor/talent guilds taking on multinational corporations (MNC). The bigger the MNC, the harder they are to defeat in negotiations. Just look at Bertelsmann's reason for wanting to acquire Simon & Schuster: to be in a better position to take on Amazon. Bertelsmann earned €18.7billion last year. They're not a small company by any stretch. 

No MNC is looking out for their authors. They're looking out for the Intellectual Property they've purchased and how they can maximize profits off of it. Just look at the despicable legal loopholes of Disney refusing to pay authors according to the terms to which they--and the businesses they acquired--agreed. If it weren't for the SFWA, these authors would have no hope of getting what they are due. 

Advances to trad authors have been plummeting for years. Not coincidentally, the timing coincides with the era of rapid acquisitions and mergers in the publishing industry, which also coincided with the mainstreaming of digital books (which rocked the industry to its core). Merger or no merger, this practice will continue.

Anyone thinking the Indie market will be unaffected by the MNC battle is holding to a very short-sighted view. We might see a near-term benefit of being able to raise our book prices while still being cheaper than trad books. At the same time, we will continue to see MNCs invade small-business marketing spaces and drive up our costs of advertising. They're already crowding us out of the few Indie-friendly spaces because those who provide the services are also businesses that need to make a profit, and what profit-generating business is going to leave money on the table? On the other hand, MNCs are utterly inept at adaptability, so any tech-driven advances are still ours to leverage.

How does all this impact readers? Readers will pay more for fewer options with no improvement in quality or diversity.

In short, if the Big 5 shrinks to the Big 4, nothing improves from the author's, reader's, or employee's perspective--unless the courts force industry changes as conditions of the merger. Then things could get interesting. It's super-duper unlikely, but I'm all about fantasies.

If the merger is blocked, nothing changes. Those things that are already inequitable and problematic will continue. Those who are fighting the good fight will continue to do so.  

At the end of the day, Simon's Random Penguin is about prepping for a battle between two Goliaths. The MNCs give zero fucks about authors and readers. As for the DOJ, there isn't much they can do to help the little guys, not with this particular antitrust case.

Predictions! 4 of Mine and 1 Guest Prediction

Predicting the publishing future - my stabs in the dark heart of the publishing wilderness. Totally sounds like I should be filming a Predator movie somewhere. Alas. Not happening. Yet.

1. All the Eggs in One Flawed Basket - I'm seeing discontent and conversations going on about how certain LARGE empires are treating authors and books of certain genres. I see the call outs about how scammers are gaming said empire to the detriment of actual authors with actual novels. The writing on the wall says to me that the age of centralization is going to have to come to an end. If you are a reader or writer of content that isn't treated well, it's time to get subversive and create alternative outlets. I'm thinking of co-op publishing models run by the authors and readers themselves.
2. Newsletters Dying a Well Deserved Death - Yes, pretty much every single marketing guru out there who wants to tell authors how we're all doing it wrong (and given the number of people signed up for my mailing list *I* might be doing it all wrong) is pushing mailing list, mailing list, mailing list, I want hard numbers on open rates. Cause nobody under thirty that I know actually reads email unless coerced into it by work. My own email inboxes are so inundated that newsletters I willingly signed up for over time are now auto-filed in the trash. Only so many hours in a day and only so much bandwidth. Makes me sad. Do I know what's going to take the place? Nope. Not that clairvoyant. But when I want to know what an author I love is doing, I search for them on my book store of choice and start clicking buy buttons for the books I don't have.
3. Books that Have Actually Been Edited - This follows Jeffe's point about craft. A well written book is a book that has also been subjected to the fine and knowledgeable eye of an editor. I won't claim a book has to be perfect. It doesn't. But the plot holes need plugging. The turns of phrase need to make sense. Just because *I* know what I meant on page 163 doesn't mean that you know what I meant. I need an editor to tell me that the lengthy paragraph about the green and brown striped haviz makes no sense and maybe some of what I know in my head didn't make it to the page. So yes. I think books that have obviously been rushed and tossed online to cash in on something might start slipping as reader annoyance with such tomes begins growing.
4. Diversity - I suspect we'll begin to see authors of color and LGBTQA authors getting more subversive about publishing with co-ops. (I hope!) I don't see the major publishers, which seem to all be particularly tone deaf to the issues, pivoting on how they're asking their mostly white, straight authors to write diversity. We're already seeing authors using privilege to attempt to signal boost AOC and LGBTQA authors. I'm hoping for a lot more of that.
5. Hatshepsut's Prediction: MORE CATS!

I will do my best.